"The Common Response To Financial Crisis Is Fed Bailout, But Actually, It Will Do More Harm"

Oct. 1, 2008 - PRLog -- “The Feds will be asked to conribute at least a US$900 billion injection of cash into money markets to try to jump start inter-bank trading that had frozen in a state of fear and shock--and that money will disappear into a black hole without any effect,” says Anthony Chaytor of Alphar when interviewed by Elsinore Times.

“White House contenders Barack Obama and John McCain have called for urgent efforts to revive a $US700 billion financial bailout, warning of catastrophe for ordinary Americans if Congress fails to act. A new poll by the Pew Research Center found weakening public support for the bailout. The September 27-29 survey said Americans only backed the plan by a 45 per cent to 38 per cent margin.
Both Obama and McCain said they backed lifting the limit on bank deposit insurance from the current maximum of $US100,000. to $US250,000. as a way to restore confidence and prevent potentially devastating runs on commercial banks.
McCain said he suggested some short-term steps to stem the crisis, such as broadening the use of the Treasury's Exchange Stabilisation Fund, a Depression-era fund that was used in the mid-1990s to help Mexico through a financial crisis. The Bush administration is already tapping it to help money market funds.”
Marathon talks among Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Capitol Hill negotiators produced a potential deal last weekend for a $US700 billion bailout bill that included some provisions sought by lawmakers of both parties that would allow the government to recoup some of the cost of the rescue.

“When that deal was announced, Obama and McCain gave only cautious backing to it: Obama said, “Continued inaction in the face of the gathering storm in our financial markets would be catastrophic for our economy and our families.” He also said he believed that a move to try to start over from scratch with a new bill would not succeed and said lawmakers instead should try to find ways to broaden support for the current bill.”
“The US Congress is seriously considering building a Depression-era style state-controlled Reconstruction Finance Corp to pump US$700 billion of capital into banks and a similarly Depression-era style Resolution Trust Corp to become a ‘bad bank’ that buys and runs down damaged loans so good banks can survive. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said this could be a worst financial crisis than the Wall St crash of 1929.”
“The question now is how much of the necessary capital is to be provided by the US taxpayer. The US$700 billion fund likely to be approved by Congress this week would fill some of the gap, although it’s not clear yet how much. The US Treasury will buy toxic mortgages and other assets off US and other banks, but it’s not clear how it will do it or how much it will pay. If Treasury buys the debt cheaply, as it should, that will still leave the banks with an uphill task to find the fresh capital needed to bolster their balance sheets and capital ratios. The other option is for the US taxpayer to demand a very hard bargain that pumps in the equity capital needed and essentially take ownership of the US banking system. The engines at the epicentre of global capitalism could be nationalised to save global capitalism. Karl Marx would be having a quiet chortle in his grave right now.
Is this the right thing to do? The Feds believe they have little choice. Last Wednesday it became clear that banks had stopped lending to each other. The blood was not circulating in the world’s financial system. Instead it was spurting out through gaping wounds in the neck. At one point last Wednesday night, there was at least US$10 billion an hour being withdrawn by panicked investors from money market funds. These are funds many Americans use instead of a bank account. They are supposed to be as safe as the bank. The blood was gushing.
People argue about the moral hazard of this, that it will just increase risk appetites in the future because we KNOW the government will just bail us out (actually many share holders have been wiped out so far in their current bailouts).
We have had a warning before called Japan; their banking sector went dead for how long--and is still pretty much dead?
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that lending money to people with no income or no job is going to work. I was recently told that the critical date is May 2009--when the time comes for all the keys to be returned, apparently this is some magical date. Where would you put your money? Some I know are going for diversification and putting it under the mattress--and the sofa. The U.S. (world’s biggest debtor) needs to ramp up our energy independance and stimulate our sagging economy. Maybe oil exploration companies and alternative energy would be worth considering. The recent history of cheap credit made that easy to do, but resulted in an asset price explosion.
The bank who leaves the bad loan in place because some payments are still being made-- is playing with fire. A first mortgage as security for a loan that exceeds the value of the property is just a ticking time bomb. The alternative (for the bank) of getting out while you can with whatever you can salvage now is not too palatable either. “What you can salvage now” might leave a bit of a hole in the balance sheet.
The US dollar is being manipulated toward a crash… (To undermine China’s strength)
The question for the buy up of illiquid assets (debts hard to value and or on sell in this market to raise funds) is one of valuation. The only fair way to manage that issue is to have two valuations - one short term and the other long term. So that if the asset is bought up too cheap or too expensive, then subsequent profits or losses are shared with the selling party.
To simply socialize losses while allowing continued ownership of the profitable business would appear a corrupt way to end a very corrupt period. Let’s be frank, companies overstated their profits and individuals looked out for themselves--one wonders how many insiders short sold stock in over firms of their own type (because they knew they were being paid bonuses for phony profits and assumed other companies were the same as themselves and thus all were overvalued). It was a very corrupt period. A few questioned the health of this sector back in 2005-6. How right they were.
It didn’t take long for the US congress to go ballistic. US government’s hands are squeezing hard inside the corpse’s ribcage now,” according to Bernard Hickey of “Show Me The Money.” See opinions on the Alphar blog site http://www.alpharpublish.com --where you can learn about "Hillary," the book by Dr. Thomas Moore that foresaw this crisis: ISBN# 0978602404, http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0978602404/?tag=alpharpp...

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