Slovakia’s pharmaceutical expenditure is forecast to grow to EUR2.06bn (US$2.62bn) by 2013

July 31, 2009 - PRLog -- Slovakia's pharmaceutical expenditure is forecast to grow to EUR2.06bn (US$2.62bn) by 2013 as a result of both the eurozone accession and global economic downturn. While this is below our previous expectations, it still represents a healthy compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.9% over the forecast period.

However, the short-term economic figures remain grim. According to data released by Slovakia's Statistics Office, industrial output was down by 18.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) in March 2009, compared with a decline of 25.6% in February 2009. The market had expected a drop of 21.2% in March. The pharmaceutical products market also fell by 15.1% y-o-y during March 2009. During Q109, overall industrial production was down by 22.9% y-o-y. BMI estimates drug market expenditure in Slovakia should increase from US$2.04bn in 2008 to US$2.60bn in 2013, a rise of 27.5%.

According to reports in the Slovak Spectator, the economic downturn is causing budgetary concerns at Slovakia's largest state-owned health insurer, Všeobecná Zdravotná Poistovna (VšZP). For the first three months of the year, VšZP reportedly faces a shortfall of EUR25mn. By the end of the year, as the economic situation deteriorates and unemployment rises - thus reducing payroll contributions - the insurer may fall EUR63mn behind its planned EUR2.07bn in revenue. As a result of the financial crisis, VšZP has implemented a number of emergency cost-containment measures and claims that its main focus will be on securing the most urgent healthcare. However, there are concerns that waiting lists may increase as resources are squeezed, while some hospital budgets may be reduced in the second half of 2009. Currently, VšZP's contracts with healthcare providers only run until the middle of 2009, giving the insurer the chance to re-negotiate terms in a few months - an option that it is likely to take.

Meanwhile, in January 2009, the Ministry of Health amended the reference price system in order to reduce pharmaceutical spending as a proportion of the total health budget. Under the new system, drug prices will be referenced against the six lowest-cost EU countries. It is estimated that Slovakia spends a third of its total health budget on medicines, with this total growing each year. In 2007, health insurers spent EUR892mn on pharmaceuticals. During the first nine months of 2009, the insurers had already paid out EUR706mn. In recent years, the main drivers of growth have been the arrival on the market of new and expensive treatments, coupled with the gradual ageing of the population, which is increasing demand for treatment.

In the Business Environment Ranking matrix for Q309, Slovakia scored 56.2for its overall pharmaceutical rating, lower than in Q209. The new score has placed Slovakia in 4th position, out of the 20 markets surveyed in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE).

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