General Election Polling Has Potential To Undermine Faith In Consumer Research

March 26, 2010 - PRLog -- With the forthcoming General Election potentially being the UK’s biggest
ever exercise in predicting consumer behaviour, anything that
undermines belief in the voracity of research into consumer behaviour is
undesirable, says consumer research specialist Engage Research.

How much would you wager on the outcome of the impending General
Election?

The Election, expected to take place on May 6th, could be the closest for
nearly twenty years. Voters are widely tipped to turn their backs on
politicians of all parties, disillusioned by what they perceive to be
questionable behaviour by members of parliament. Some predict a first
hung Parliament since 1974 and the possibility of a second General Election
in less than a year. Others predict a record low turn-out and apathy the
great winner.

Expect, tipped, perceived, predict. There may be plenty at stake for the
nation but once again market research is preparing to come under almost as
much glare of the national spotlight as the three party leaders. No doubt
the media will reflect again on the 1992 General Election, when the polls’
performance was the worst in UK polling history, underestimating the
Conservative lead over Labour by nearly 9%.

Why does that matter to marketers? Because, with the forthcoming General
Election potentially being the UK’s biggest ever exercise in predicting
consumer behaviour, anything that undermines belief in the voracity of
research into consumer behaviour is undesirable. After all, a sound
fundamental understanding of consumer behaviour and market dynamics is
what underpins the most successful marketing strategies.

Pollsters are dealing with ‘brands’ that elicit extreme responses: complete
loyalty, extreme emotions (usually anti) or apathy. It is rare that
commercial brands elicit such strong emotions – even in the case of a
product recall - and, therefore, the actions and perceptions of consumers
with which we deal are often not so straightforward. Political parties are
susceptible to consumer disaffection and sudden reactions to events in a
way that a breakfast cereal or a beer rarely would: MPs’ expenses, war,
economic developments and the personalities of the party leaders.

In the commercial rather than political arena, we have the benefit of more
shades of grey than stark blacks and whites and the ability to benchmark
research findings against a brand’s in-market performance. We can judge
degrees of loyalty or support for a brand that doesn’t rest on a single “are
you going to vote for them or not” question but instead may answer
questions about when to invest, when to launch new products and services
or make acquisitions and, in so doing, provides greater insight into the
consumer’s motivation.

The result is usually tangible evidence that supports the research findings,
rather than just the findings themselves. Often it is this supporting
information that enables brand managers and marketing directors to make
smart decisions or to get their timing and strategy right.

Whilst we are confident our colleagues in the polling organisations will
perform well in the forthcoming election, it should be remembered that
polling – accurate or not – is not the be-all and end-all of predicting
consumer behaviour. For marketers rather than politicians, regardless of
what happens on May 6th, it remains a sophisticated, scientific approach
that continues to help brands engage with and understand their consumers.

Ends