Hunza lake frozen, water yet to be released

Jan. 15, 2011 - PRLog -- The approach followed in managing the Attabad landslide disaster was “wait and see” – basically wait for the lake to outburst, but it did not. If not all, some of the decision makers were ready to put the blame on nature and allow it to take its course for a second phase of disaster in a series in case of an abrupt outburst of the lake.

Initial thoughts of some of the high-ups suggested storing the lake water to meet energy needs without realising the universally accepted preconditions/specifications needed for man-made water reservoirs. Some key individuals suggested avoiding interventions and keeping the lake as a wetland to attract tourists without realising the potential costs of alternate road alignment (miles of rock cutting) and short lifespan of such lakes due to volumes of silting in these locations.

The impact of the Attabad disaster of January 4 on small farmers up in the Karakarom mountains included loss of livelihood means/family incomes and submerging of houses in the 28 km long lake. Besides abrupt damage to three villages with loss of human lives in Attabad and Sarat, the losses in four villages – Ayeenabad, Shishkat, Gulmit, part of Ghulkin and Hussaini were incremental over a period of months.

The pace of work, controversies in understanding the issues, accepting ownership, coordinating plans, moulding political perceptions, managing expectations and not meeting deadlines truly reflected mismanagement.

Currently, most IDPs are in the harsh climatic conditions with host families, some members have shifted to other towns staying with relatives in central Hunza, Gilgit, Rawalpindi and Karachi and yet waiting to be together once again in their villages.

A total of 21 villages with 25,000 population upstream Hunza River are, after a complete year, cutoff from rest of Pakistan through roads, and the people of the villages hit by the lake water are still hoping to get their land back in a fir enough condition to reclaim it again for the next harvests to feed themselves.

The population downstream from the Hunza and Indus rivers continuously remained under threat throughout the past year with the fear that incase of an outburst, lives and properties could be lost. Many families settled on the banks of the river even in Kohistan in KP and spent nights in tents during peak hours of river flow.

The lake today is one year old and it still stands right up over the farmers’ land in those mountain gorges.

During 2010, besides the farmers who lost their land and houses, a majority of the farmers in the valley could not plough and sow crops due to constraints in getting material inputs and risks of high costs in cash crop cultivation and transportation to markets, although farmers were assured by the organisations concerned in releasing the water from the lake in weeks.

The visible trends during the past year reveal that more households have dropped below the poverty line, crop harvest has been very poor in villages surrounding the lake, cash crop were not planted, IDPs are still with host families, shelters could not be built before winters, many parents could not pay the fees of their children, travelling to and from the disaster-hit villages has been difficult and tourism has gone with the wind.

However, the GB government did pay part of the compensation to affected families and has yet to work with the central government to fulfill its obligation and promises made to the affectees of releasing water from the area.

Currently, the lake has frozen for a distance of 7 km and boat service has stopped for that specific distance. A porter charges Rs 1,500 for 25 kg of material to be transported at a distance of 7 km through a pony track. A jeep rent costs Rs 3,000 to travel to a distance of 8 km. Bad weather conditions force people travelling onward to central Hunza to spend at least one night at a hotel in Aliabad, which adds to the financial burden on the poor.

Many students studying in other parts of the country did not visit their parents during the year due to high costs of transportation and yet needed money to pay their school fees. This disaster also had a negative impact on wheat and fruit crop production in the villages closer to the lake due to abnormal variations in temperature/precipitation and high moisture during 2010. Apricot production was only five-to-eight percent of the previous years in Gulmit and Shiskat, but Ayeenabad farmers lost all farm income with land and trees being submerged in the lake. Most of the women apricot growers and honey bee keepers could not get proper harvest for local consumption and supply to entrepreneurs involved in export of agriculture products, especially dried apricot and olive honey.

One of the meetings with women groups during my visit revealed the names of the key organisations that were of help to them during the initial relief and recovery phase. These include Pak Army/Aviation, government of China, NRSP/RSPN, AKDN/FOCUS, WFP, Punjab government, NDMA, Bahira Foundation and the GB government. However, the Chinese government’s support ranks at the top for providing high quality food items (flour, cooking oil, rice and sugar) and heating materials (coal) for six months and with a promise to feed the population for the next six months as well.

Certainly, the disaster was huge in its size and scale, but the understanding of its best solution and taking effective action to release water from the lake was the core missing link. Timely decisions were not made. Local knowledge in assessing the problem was underestimated, external expertise was avoided in the initial days. One key lesson learned appears to be miscommunication in managing the disaster.

The area is seen as home to glaciers including Batura Glacier (63 km), which is one of the longest outside the polar zone. These masses of glaciers regulate perennial water to the Tarbela reservoir and snowmelt accelerates flow of water in summers while an unexpected outburst of Glacier lakes accumulates additional threat of natural disasters in future as well. It is doubtful whether the departments concerned put budgets for preparedness and capacity building with the participation of local people for managing potential natural disasters such as this one.

The Hunza landslide is a live example of incompetence – 10 day deadline has so far taken 365 days and yet the houses, shops, crop land and tree assets, government infrastructures, including key bridges and the 25 km KKH section is still under water. Road communication between Pakistan and China is dysfunctional for the past one year and 25,000 people are disconnected through roads with the rest of Pakistan.

The Attabad landslide is a true demonstration of the saying, “Success has many fathers, but failure is an orphan.”

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