Without Knowledge Of First Cause Can Science "Correctly" Predict Effect?

MOUNT LAUREL, N.J. - May 1, 2014 - PRLog -- The unambiguous empirical evidence obtained in a 12 year experiment has revealed that there is a fundamental problem with the scientific method of using statistical ensemble as empirical evidence to substantiate scientific theories. From 2000 to 2012, football fans were invited to vote at TemptDestiny.com throughout the entire year for their team to appear on the next Tempt Destiny (TD) billboard. Since a selection cannot take place without the simultaneous existence of its potential, the team with the most votes would also need to compete in the SB in order for the selection to be complete since the sole purpose of the artwork/billboard is in support of a SB victory. This pairing of a selection with a single potential would then give us a direct selection event. In the experiment, a direct selection had been obtained each year. However, only once out of twelve annual attempts did the selection made pair with its potential (1), versus no selection pairing (0):

[000000010000] - Direct Selection Events

In the last three years of the experiment, the option was added that if the direct selection event did not occur then an indirect selection (pairing a selection with more-than-one potential) would be made if one of the two SB bound teams had more votes than the other. We obtained 3 out of 3 indirect pairing events. After reviewing the results of each annual experiment, if we had conducted only indirect selection events for the entire 12 year span we would have had 12 out of 12 indirect selections which would also include the direct selection event:

[111111111111] - Indirect Selection Events

Now lets factor in their effects. The effect of a selection of only one potential is certain/deterministic for there is only one potential selected. We had 3 out of 3 direct selections (2 prior to the experiment, SB XXI and SB XXXV) all with "identical" results. The effects of a selection of more than one potential is uncertain/nondeterministic for there are more than one potential selected. We had 3 indirect selections with "different" results (SB XLIV, SB XLVI, SB XLV). During the 12 year span we had 4 selection "pairing" events, 1 direct and 3 indirect:

[1011] - Effects of the Selections made (not in order)

Without knowledge of cause, can you correctly guess which effect (1) was caused by the mutually exclusive direct selection? And even if you think you could guess correctly, how would you know since the effects from a direct selection or from an indirect selection will appear to be the same, e.g., [111111111111]?

Knowledge of statistical ensemble/data without knowledge of cause can only provide incomplete knowledge of the world for there are TWO mutually exclusive and jointly exhaustive first cause variables in nature. The second cause paradigm of effectual causality places cause second to effects (effect causing effect) which gives us a false sense of first cause (cause and effect). As it stands, empirical evidence based on the second cause paradigm of effectual causality or reasoning/beliefs based on effectual causality are indistinguishable in regards to validity for both are based on conjecture. In science, evidence based on an assumption is a speculation, not a discovery.

What the findings show is that ignorance of first cause gives us an omission error. This means that the validity of empirical evidence based on the omission error (statistical ensemble) may in fact be invalid. As it currently stands, science will have a serious integrity issue to contend with if it continues on with business as usual, i.e., "Shut up and calculate!", without correcting itself when a new discovery has been made that supersedes previous knowledge. For the record, the initial findings were formally presented at the American Physical Society (APS) convention on April 30th, 2011. During the presentation, the audience conducted the coin-in-cup experiment in order to confirm the findings for themselves. In the following months, the findings were included in the Smithsonian/NASA Astrophysics Data System.

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REFERENCES:

Tempt Destiny web site - http://temptdestiny.com

American Physical Society (APS) convention on April 30th, 2011, meeting:

http://meetings.aps.org/Meeting/APR11/Event/145843

Smithsonian/NASA Astrophysics Data System:

http://labs.adsabs.harvard.edu/adsabs/abs/2011APS..APRE13...

Peer-reviewed article based on applying first cause to particle physics:

“Assumed Higgs Boson Discovery Proved Einstein Right.” International Journal of Fundamental Physical Sciences (IJFPS), Vol. 37, p. 44-47. Published in December 2012. DOI:10.14331/ijfps.2012.330035. Cited Available via http://fundamentaljournals.org/ijfps/downloads/35_IJFPS_Dec_2012_44_47.pdf