Pak’s ‘Unconventional’ Way to SLBM Capability

NEW DELHI - June 13, 2015 - PRLog -- According to an item published in the latest issue of Indian Military Review Pakistan reportedly plans to develop its sea-based second strike capability based on a sea-launched variant of the Hatf-VII/ Babur cruise missile. Hatf-VII/ Babur missiles might be fired from torpedo tubes, similar to UGM-84 Harpoons. The Hatf-VII, a medium-range subsonic cruise missile has a range of 700 km. Hence, for the missile to be used, the submarine needs to be deployed close to enemy territory. In the case of Pakistan, it means the Arabian Sea, which also means that it would not be required to be deployed far from its home base. Thus, a conventional submarine carrying the Hatf-VII missile meets Pakistan’s requirement for a nuclear deterrent at sea.

Giving details, the new issue of Indian Military Review, published from Gurgaon  Pakistan’s armed forces are armed and structured specifically against India. Their areas of operation are limited by geography. Its existing technical capabilities do not allow it to develop a nuclear propelled submarine quickly. The Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT) prohibits transfer of nuclear weapons technology and that can be extended to include the weapon carrier also. Her economic potential may not allow it to maintain nuclear propelled forces. Most importantly, its limited area of interest and geography of operations does not merit investing huge sums in nuclear submarines.  This task can be very well carried out by placing nuclear armed missiles on conventional submarines whose submerged ranges are increased by using Air Independent Propulsion (AIP) systems.

It is also estimated that Pakistan would require12 to 14 submarines to meet the requirement of maintaining sea-based deterrence. This would allow for a constant war patrol of at least one deterrent-tasked submarine, leaving other submarines to carry out more traditional tasks. Pakistan’s Ministry of Defence had informed the National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Defence in Islamabad that the government has confirmed the purchase of eight new submarines from China.

Reports indicate the Type 041 or Type 041A, which is a modified Yuan Class. However, the name indicated is the Qing-class. Yet other media sources report that Islamabad will build two classes of submarines based on the Qing-class vessels displacing 3,000 tons – the Project S-26 and Project S-30 – under licence with Chinese assistance at the Submarine Rebuild Complex (SRC) facility being developed at Ormara, west of Karachi.

The Type 032 Qing-class diesel-electric ballistic missile submarine was designed as a replacement for the Golf-class submarines of the Peoples Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). It is understood that China would use these submarines for test-launching submarine-launched ballistic missiles. These are the world’s largest conventional submarines with a submerged displacement of 6,628 tons.

These submarines are undergoing trials in China and are expected to be the test beds for new technologies such as combustion powered torpedoes, compartments for special forces, underwater unmanned vehicles, new Submarine Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBMs), new cruise missiles, new anti-ship missiles, new surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) and a new escape pod for Chinese nuclear submarines.

These submarines reportedly carry three Vertical Launch System (VLS) tubes for submarine-launched ballistic missiles in the fin and four VLS tubes for cruise/anti-ship/anti-submarine missiles in the forward section. They are suspected to be propelled by a Chinese air independent propulsion (AIP) system, which is based on the Stirling AIP developed by Kockums of Sweden. The Swedish system provides for submerged endurance between 14 and 18 days. The Chinese claim submerged endurance of 30 days.

Another submarine developed by the Chinese is the Type 039A/ Type 041/ S-20. This submarine is also known as the Yuan-class. This submarine has a dived displacement of 2300 tons and is capable of firing tube-launched YJ-8X missiles and has AIP. YJ-8X is a family of missiles with ranges varying from 120 to 500 kms. The S-20 is the export version and does not come with AIP. However, the same can be installed if the customer desires.

As on date, all the nuclear armed ballistic missile carrying submarines are propelled by nuclear power. They were hurriedly designed to overcome the strategic disadvantage of not having ballistic missiles at sea at all. One such example is the Project 629 submarine of Soviet Union, also classified as ‘Golf-class’ by NATO. These submarines carried three missiles in silos in the elongated fin. Initially, they carried R-11 FM missiles, which had a range of just 150 km. However, the same was enhanced to 600 km when they started carrying the R-13 missiles. These boats were commissioned between 1958 and 1962. All boats were decommissioned by 1990.

To summarise:

•          Firstly, conventional submarines, capable of firing submarine launched ballistic missiles are available and are being built by China.

•          There is close strategic military relationship between China and Pakistan and, hence, transfer of such submarines to Pakistan is a real possibility.

•          These submarines have VLS for launching both Submarine Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBMs) and Submarine Launched Cruise Missiles (SLCMs).

•          Pakistan’s immediate sea-based deterrence is expected to be based on a tube launched SLCM with a range of 700 km.

•          To avoid complications under the NPT regime, China may decide to transfer the submarines to Pakistan without the SLBM silos. However, Pakistan can still fire its nuclear deterrents using the SLCM VLS.Transfer of SLCM VLS would not be in contravention of international laws.

•          Even if China decided to transfer the Type 041A and not the Type 032, these submarines would be capable of launching the tube launched SLCMs, thus permitting Pakistan to deploy nuclear weapons at sea.

•          In case Pakistan decides to build submarines with Chinese assistance at Submarine Rebuild Facility at Ormara, the Chinese could assist the Pakistanis in building the Type 032 Qing-class. This would provide SLBM firing capability to Pakistan. The first of the submarines could be delivered by 2018.

SLBM/ SLCM firing conventional submarines with dived endurance of 14 to 18 days may be sufficient for undertaking deterrent patrols in the Arabian Sea.

Deployment of these submarines by Pakistan would entail heavy deployment of anti-submarine warfare (ASW) assets by the Indian Navy in the Arabian Sea, including deployment of submarines to shadow these boats.