2024 Bitcoin Prediction from Nathan Batchelor

Jan. 3, 2024 - PRLog -- In this article, I would like to give my 2024 prediction for Bitcoin and in order to do this I have to give three scenarios.

Please note that these predictions are based upon my chart reading skills, understanding of current on-chain metrics, and personal assumptions about economic and political events in 2024.

Also please bear in mind that my prediction in 2023 when BTC was trading close to $20,000 was $42,000 to $44,000. I say this because some of my thoughts may sound outlandish, but so did my $44,000 prediction in late 2022 and mid-way through 2023.

Starting with scenario one, and this is my least favourite option, and it is also the most popular in terms of the mainstream analyst thinking box right now.

This scenario sees Bitcoin skyrocketing towards the $80,000 level after the ETF approval is announced. This would be confirmed for me if we saw Bitcoin blow past $50,000 after the potential approval. The confirmation of $80,000 would come for me after the break of $58,000.

In this scenario, BTC would probably consolidate between $70,000 and $58,000 for most of 2024 after $70,000 is achieved and start to test the upper bounds of $70,000 post the U.S. election in Nov 2024.

Now scenario two. This is pretty wild so stick with me no matter how inconceivable it may seem upon first reading.

Bitcoin fails to stage any significant traction after the ETF decision, fails to get picked up on a pullback to $32,000, and subsequently breaks the $25,000, causing a cascade of technical selling.

There is substantial evidence on the monthly chart that a cycle low has not yet formed, especially the odd "lift-off" from last January created a very weird monthly candle, which is not consistent with cycle lows.

Also, we must consider that Bitcoin reached the expected bear market recovery target, plus it shaved past the 50% Fibonacci level of the all-time high to 2022 low.

Bitcoin would of course recover and end the year 2024 near where the Bitcoin price currently trades. This is a wild scenario, and almost a traders dream if it were to happen.

Now to the most likely scenario, in my opinion, i.e. scenario three. This would see some of the froth coming of the ETF approval, with Bitcoin maybe a new high after the approval, but then correcting quite significantly.

This would also see a major stop wipeout, bringing Bitcoin down to the $32,000 area. For me, this is currently major buy spot for BTC.

Additionally, you don't need to risk much capital in that area to be wrong. A stop loss under $29,400 would be sufficient enough.

Overall, I hope you enjoyed this run of what could happen in 2024. My money is on scenario three right now. But just like market conditions, opinions change.