New Insights Unveiled: Estimating Future Sea Level Rise with Advanced Research

AUSTIN, Texas - Oct. 15, 2024 - PRLog -- What are the Primary Direct Causes of Sea Level Rise?

Between 1880 and 2022, average global sea levels have risen by between 8 and 9 inches.

This is concerning news as it puts nearly 1/3 of the US population that resides in the growing coastal city regions at significantly greater risk for flooding and weather-related disasters such as hurricanes.

And the problem is not getting better.

The rate of sea level rise has accelerated significantly in recent years.

During the period 2006 – 2015, seas rose by 0.14 inches annually – which is more than double the average of 0.06 inches a year measured throughout the 20th century.

What are the primary direct causes of sea level rise?

Before we begin, we can assume that the amount of water globally remains constant – what changes is where it's located, e.g. in ice, in the oceans, on the land, or in the atmosphere (if only temporarily).

To be more specific, some water sources are locked in glaciers and ice sheets (known as the cryosphere), water is stored on land in lakes and reservoirs, and some water resources are retained in underground aquifers. And of course, water does evaporate and collect in the clouds, eventually returning to earth as rainwater.

Now let's talk about the two primary contributors to sea level rise.

Volumetric Thermal Expansion of Water

The first requires a quick physics recap. We're familiar with hot air balloons – they can fly upward as the air inside the balloon heats up and becomes less dense than the air around it.

Water has some similar properties; its volume and density change depending on its temperature, a property known as volumetric thermal expansion.

At 4C (40F), water is at its most dense – 1000kg/m3.

But as the temperature of water rises, it becomes less dense.

At 26C (79F), the temperature that hurricanes can form, the density of water is only 996.8 kg/m3.

On its face, it may seem like a very subtle difference, but this decrease in density (and the corresponding increase in volume) causes oceans to expand as they get warmer, leading to increased sea levels.

(This change in water density/volume is also responsible for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC, more commonly known as "the Gulf Stream," which shuttles warm water from the Gulf of Mexico region to the northern Atlantic, keeping temperatures in Europe warmer despite their high latitude.)

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