Summer 2008, The unexpected but predictable

May 24, 2008 - PRLog -- Predictables Perspective on Summer 2008


Temperatures will finally rise closer to usual levels, but Growing Degree Day accumulations could be worrisome

Precipitation is trending drier although regions of sharp contrast  will continue:
               a. The northern Corn Belt stays moist
               b. The western High Plains (Dakotas) and the south central Plains deepen in droughtiness

SSTs:
              a.  The Pacific warms into El Nino;
              b.  The Atlantic warms enough to support typical hurricane activity (2004 analog)

2008 has been a banner year for the unexpected but not unpredictable. Winter arrived late and stayed later. Spring started – almost – and will finally blossom as the warming winds of summer call. Dynamic Predictables expected this cool, wet planting season, and is today releasing summer predictions.

Temperatures will be close to the seasonal average across the nation this summer. Regional heat is likely at times, but the critical summer unknown will be the accumulation of Growing Degree days. Crops were planted late into moist soils and only a warm late summer and early fall might push the crop toward maturity.

Precipitation will trend sharply drier in the months ahead, although the northern Corn Belt could remain cool and moist. While no widespread drought is anticipated, sharp regional dryness could be troublesome, especially across the Dakotas and across the South Central Plains into the southeast.

Pacific seas surface temperatures will climb sharply as the summer stretches into fall suggesting the start of a typical El Nino pattern that should linger into summer 2009. Crop impacts are slow to develop, but because of the time of year, Southern Hemisphere impacts could be most significant.

Atlantic sea surface temperatures will be warmer than the last year so near term climate dynamics will favor tropical storm formation and should support increased (closer to typical) tropical storm development. Statistically, after two years with forecasts of strong development and limited activity, a threepeat is unlikely.

Contact: Gregg Suhler (573) 815-0520; email  suhlerg@dynapred.com
               Al Peterlin  (717) 731-8804; email apeterlin@panetwork.com

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About Dynamic Predictables, LLC. – Dynamic Predictables is a private company providing comprehensive weather, climate and impact assessment.  Sophisticated algorithms provide improved definition of time and space applications.  El Nino predictions and DP mean monthly outlooks of temperature and precipitation are available as much as one to five years in advance.  Climate forecasts are also available for selected international locations.

Website: www.dynamicpredictables.com