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Follow on Google News | WPAR Presents 2009 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Residential Real Estate Sales ReportWestchester Putnam Association of Reatlors presents its residential sales findings for the fourther quarter of 2009.
By: WPAR At the same time, sales activity increased with each passing quarter of 2009. In the first quarter Westchester’ Seasonally adjusted, the fourth quarter sales rate in Westchester was equivalent to 7,840 units per year, an increase of 27% from the prior quarter. Putnam County’s seasonally adjusted rate climbed to 800 units per year, an increase of 11% from the prior quarter. Some of this reenergized market activity was attributable to the federal tax credit stimulus program whose term was extended, eligibility expanded, and usefulness enhanced by supportive New York State programs, such that home-buying decision-making by first-time buyers was accelerated. However, first-time home buying is a limited fraction of the Westchester- The 2009 median sale price of a Westchester single-family house was $580,000 or about 11% less than in 2008. That price was a full $105,000 or 15% less than the $685,000 median sale price posted in the 2007 peak year. As has been previously noted in these reports, some of the price slippage in our area has been due to the particular weakness of the high-end sector, namely houses selling for $1 million or more. Such properties accounted for only 17% of all sales in 2009 whereas the ratio ranged from 21% to 25% during the period 2004 to 2008. On a quarter-by-quarter basis, the Westchester single family median sale price was $532,000 in the first quarter and $565,000 in the second quarter of 2009, down 15% and 16% respectively from the comparable 2008 periods. In the third quarter the $630,000 median was down 11%. In the fourth quarter the median sale price of $560,000 was down by only 2% from the fourth quarter of 2008. The pricing path of the condominium and cooperative sectors was less direct than that but there was a net upward movement in those sectors, too, over the course of the year. There was a clear trend line through 2009 toward price recovery rather than further price decreases. One local factor that tended to militate against the precipitous loss of market value experienced in many other parts of the nation was the relatively stable inventory of properties for sale. The 2009 year-end inventory in Westchester of 5,380 properties was virtually unchanged from the 2008 level. This was in spite of the increasing spate of foreclosure filings that averaged 200 monthly in the first half of the year but that exceeded 300 monthly in the second half. Only about 20% of the area’s foreclosure filings result in actual foreclosure judgments; the balance seem mostly to be resolved through short sales although some few are resolved through refinancing, negotiated forbearance or other workouts. It appears that for 2009 at least, there were not enough short sales or transactions of lender-owned properties at significantly sub-market prices to cause an unmanageable overhang of inventory or to drag down the overall market pricing structure. What continues to most control the amount of inventory in Westchester and Putnam is the willingness and ability of potential home sellers to stay out of the market until conditions improve. Smaller inventory usually means greater resistance to price devaluation. What is starting to look like recovery in the real estate market of course can still be derailed by other adverse conditions such as increased mortgage interest rates, persistent unemployment, and reversals in the equity markets that induce new caution by investors and ultimately all consumers including home buyers. For now the equity markets are giving encouragement as investors have watched the Dow Jones Industrial Average climb from less than 7,000 in March to more than 10,000 by December of 2009. Average mortgage interest rates flashed red in June as rates on 30-year conventional loans briefly exceeded 6.0%, but they steadily progressed downward to as low as 5.0% since then. However, forecasters seem to be hedging their bets as to whether rates will climb again. Just a percentage point increase, especially if sudden, could frustrate a real estate recovery. The most worrisome threat to the area’s real estate market is the persistently high rate of unemployment throughout 2009 and probably continuing into 2010. The concern is that this will lead to ever increasing numbers of foreclosure filings. Up to now the Westchester- But this is not the case for now, and clearly the pattern of quarterly activity in 2009 and particularly the fourth quarter have established a momentum for improved conditions in 2010. Sales volumes are exceeding what might be expected from the tax credit programs alone. Westchester and Putnam County prices, which have not approached the level of collapse experienced in many other areas of the nation, seem to have leveled out in the range of 15-16% below their peaks in 2006 and 2007 – enough to renew buyer interest - and are closing in on 2008 levels. If the price trends continue, the first quarter of 2010 might show sales prices slightly ahead of what they were in the first quarter of 2009. The Westchester- # # # The Westchester Putnam Association of REALTORS®, Inc. (WPAR Inc.), a non-profit trade association, represents 7,500 real estate professionals in Westchester and Putnam Counties. It also owns and operates the Westchester- End
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