H1N1 (Swine Influenza) - Pipeline Assessment and Market Forecasts to 2017

March 8, 2011 - PRLog -- GlobalData estimated the H1N1 (swine influenza) therapeutics market was worth $6.77 billion in 2010. GlobalData expects the H1N1 (Swine Influenza) therapeutics market to decline at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 4% from $6.77 billion in 2010 to $5 billion approximately in 2017. The negative growth is primarily due to the fact that the pandemic has now moved into the post-pandemic stage. In addition, the expiration of major drug patents, namely Tamiflu in 2016 and Relenza in 2013, are also going to have a negative impact on the growth of this market.

GlobalData found that the products currently in the market are highly efficacious in providing protection against the disease with minimum side-effects. All of the marketed products provide high seroprotection rates and seroconversion rates against the disease. The key products such as Fluzone, Fluvirin, Afluria and Flumist are able to satisfy the demand in the H1N1 swine influenza vaccines market. The key products such as Tamiflu (oseltamivir) and Relenza (zanamivir) are also able to satisfy the demand in the H1N1 swine influenza market.

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The H1N1 swine influenza therapeutics market has moderately low unmet needs as the market is well served by the current product options. This leaves little scope for new entrants to capture value from under-served segments. The new products have to aim at gaining market share by providing unique offerings. The likely untapped area is the availability of products with novel mechanisms of action.

approximately 22 molecules in various phases of clinical development, including five first-in-class molecules. These first-in-class molecules are in the early stages of clinical development, so their impact on the current market will be later in the future. In the case of vaccines, most of the late stage pipeline vaccines do not have novel mechanisms of action except for a single molecule which is in the early stage of development. As a result, the pipeline for the H1N1 (Swine Influenza) therapeutics market is weak.

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