Consulting agency «UkrAgroConsult»: Winter crops condition and prospects of export regulation

April 26, 2013 - PRLog -- This autumn weather is unfavorable for winter crops in Ukraine. In some regions autumn drought has already lasted for 2.5-3 months, and November was the driest month for the last 50 years. In central and southern regions the soil moisture is the lowest.

Lack of soil moisture has affected the autumn sowing and crop condition before winter.

According to Agriculture Ministry, as of November 24 winter grains sprouted on 74.7% of the planted area which is slightly over the last week’s level. Low soil moisture and cold weather prevent crops from emerging on the area of more than 2 million ha. Moreover winter crops on around 1.1 million ha are not likely to sprout at all or the process will be very complicated.

The crop conditions are the worst in Dnepropetrovsk region, where grains have emerged on only 16% of the planted area. In Nikolayev region only 41.5% of winter grains have sprouted.

As of November 24 winter rapeseed emerged on 740.4 thousand ha or 81%. Rapeseed hasn’t sprouted on 173.5 thousand ha (19%), out of which rapeseed is likely to emerge on the area of 16 thousand ha. Around 64 thousand ha of acreage will have complicated sprouting and winter rape on 89.5 thousand ha will not emerge. The biggest problems are in Odessa, Kherson, Nikolayev, Dnepropetrovsk and Khmelnitsky regions.

Winter crops condition has a thin chance on improvement as growth has already stopped. Meteorologists forecast dry weather for the next ten days, consequently weak and thinned crops are unlikely to strengthen. The share of such winter crops approximates to 25%.

Taking into account the current condition of winter grains and rapeseed, a large part of crops will most likely be replanted and interplanted in spring.

The Agriculture Ministry estimates that spring crops can be planted on additional 2.3 million ha. That will include 500 thousand ha of corn acreage, 200 thousand ha of wheat, 300 thousand ha will be soybean and 1.2 million ha – spring barley.

As for now we can just hope that winter will be warm and snowy.