Polysilicon Imports into China Drop to Level of 2011

WUERZBURG, Germany - Feb. 29, 2024 - PRLog -- Polysilicon imports into China have fallen to the lowest level since 2011. According to Chinese customs statistics, imports of the feedstock for solar cells and semiconductors slumped by 28.5% from 88,093 metric tons (MT) in 2022 to 62,965 MT in 2023.

"The non-Chinese polysilicon manufacturers Wacker, Hemlock Semiconductor and OCI Malaysia are increasingly shifting their shipments from China to Vietnam, where three of the four largest Chinese solar module suppliers have established wafer plants," explains Johannes Bernreuter, head of Bernreuter Research and author of the Polysilicon Market Outlook 2027.

Two factors have pushed this development:

• On August 18, 2023 the U.S. Department of Commerce confirmed its preliminary determination made in December 2022 that several manufacturers in Southeast Asia, which produce solar cells or modules with wafers from China, are circumventing anti-dumping duties on Chinese solar cells and modules.
• On June 21, 2022, the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act came into effect, which bans products made with forced labor in Xinjiang in northwestern China from entering the United States. Hence, the leading Chinese solar module suppliers began to create separate supply chains based on polysilicon from non-Chinese manufacturers for the export of solar modules to the U.S.

However, customs statistics show that polysilicon exports from China to Vietnam soared from 639 MT in 2022 to 4,970 MT in 2023. "That raises doubts about the claims of a separate supply chain and should sound alarm bells at the CBP," comments Bernreuter.

Hemlock Semiconductor (USA), Wacker (Germany/USA) and OCI Malaysia together were able to increase their polysilicon exports to Vietnam from 18,672 MT in 2022 by 14,593 MT (+78.2%) to 33,265 MT in 2023. This growth more than compensated for the 13,918 MT they lost in business volume in China in 2023.

During the polysilicon shortage, China imported extraordinarily large volumes from Japan  and Taiwan These two sources have obviously been exhausted now: Japan's monthly import rate melted down to a range of 50 MT to 20 MT in the fourth quarter of 2023; shipments from Taiwan have already gone down to zero since last August.

Imports from the United States and South Korea developed in a very similar way to those from Japan in 2023. As a result, the combined share of Germany's Wacker and OCI Malaysia in total Chinese polysilicon imports rose to 97.8% in the fourth quarter. Moreover, there has been a striking drop in overall volumes since October. "If the fourth quarter is any indicator for 2024, then polysilicon imports into China will plunge by another 40% to no more than 38,000 MT this year," concludes Bernreuter.

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